As an informal LEGO collector I all the time hold an eye fixed out for units which might be price investing in. Clearly the intention and purpose of LEGO investing is in the end to make a revenue. Subsequently it’s essential for the informal investor to maximise their investment greenback which is normally achieved solely after a set is retired, or in LEGO parlance, reached its finish of life (EOL). It’s no secret that the one largest consider LEGO investing and set appreciation is EOL. In easiest phrases, no EOL no revenue.
For the LEGO investor nothing is extra eagerly anticipated and maybe concurrently dreaded than the three letters: EOL. For a lot of informal LEGO traders EOL comes far too quick and for others far too late. Many occasions EOL comes fairly unexpectedly. Someday a set is seemingly there and the following it’s “Out of Inventory” or “Name for Availability”. Neither is sweet in case you are the LEGO investor on the surface wanting in. There are a lot of EOL theories and prognosticators to be discovered online with various claims of purported LEGO sources and inside info. Amidst all of the hypothesis one factor is certain: until you’re employed for The LEGO Group (TLG) and have precise product life cycle data, it’s all simply pure hypothesis and educated guesses. No matter this truth, it’s nonetheless enjoyable and probably worthwhile to interact on this exercise. Nearly each LEGO investor does it. Traditionally TLG makes use of a maddeningly and infinitely versatile two yr EOL rule the place many units see their production run finish. I prefer to sum up the phenomenon with three important EOL classes or eventualities which I name: exception, notion, and deception.
Lacking out on an excellent LEGO set is a intestine wrenching feeling that occurs all too usually for the informal LEGO investor. The 2 yr rule is nothing greater than a obscure LEGO barometer for when a set would possibly go EOL. As with nearly each rule there are exceptions-in this case many exceptions! Making an attempt to determine a vivid line EOL rule is a real idiot’s errand. The next examples are however just a few exceptions to the LEGO two yr EOL rule. The primary and maybe most excessive EOL exception could be the Vacation Prepare set (10173). It was out there for just one meager vacation season in 2006 after which poof. The unique RRP in 2006 was $89 and in the present day it’s valued at upwards of $300. Granted this was special day set, however nonetheless that short a lifespan is a troublesome tablet to swallow in case you had any hope of buying it. One other notable exception set that many informal traders could have missed out on is the Commerce Federation MTT (7662) which was launched in late 2007 for $99 and went EOL in late 2008 with just a bit over one yr in production. The worth of this set in the present day is almost $400, which is whopping 285% enhance. One different lofty instance of an EOL set exception to the 2 yr rule is the VW Beetle (10187) launched in 2008 and reached EOL standing in December of 2009 for a complete lifespan of lower than 20 months. The unique RRP was $119 and the present worth in the present day is listed at about $350, a virtually 200% enhance. Sadly there are lots of extra units that match into the exception class, like Market Avenue (10190) and Grand Carousel (10188) to call simply two. Each of which make me really feel like kicking myself for lacking! These exceptions to the EOL rule spotlight the perils and pitfalls of LEGO investing and any traders that snatched up these exceptions to the 2 yr EOL rule have been very lucky certainly.
So we checked out just a few exceptions to the 2 yr EOL guideline, now onto the majority of the rule. It stands to purpose {that a} rule ought to have numerous examples that help it. In different phrases for exceptions to exist there have to be a collective notion of what’s presupposed to occur. There are quite a few examples of the 2 yr EOL rule that, if noticed, nonetheless allowed informal traders to make a tidy revenue. A favourite set of mine that falls into this class is The Eiffel Tower (10181). Launched in late 2007 and going EOL in late 2009, this set is a superb instance of an nearly precise two yr production run. The unique RRP for The Eiffel Tower was $199. The present worth now stands at an impressively tall $850 which interprets to a not too shabby 326% enhance. One other tremendous instance of an excellent investment set with a routine two yr production life is Jabba’s Sail Barge (6210). This superior set was launched in 2006 with a modest RRP of $75. At the moment this set sometimes instructions a value exceeding $400 which equates to a 445% enhance on investment. Maybe the holy grail of the LEGO modular world and one of the best instance of the 2 yr production life cylce was set 10182 Café Nook. Café Nook lasted a full two years from 2007 to 2009. The thoughts boggling unique discount RRP of $139 has now ballooned to a staggering $1,136, for a 700%+ enhance in worth! Different notable units that fall squarely throughout the two yr EOL candy spot are the Taj Mahal (10189); the Inexperienced Grocer (10185); The Millennium Falcon (10179); Vader’s TIE Superior (10175) and hundreds extra. It’s arduous to assert any shock or generate a lot sympathy for lacking out on any set that caught round for a minimum of two years. Two years represents the widespread notion of the common LEGO production lifespan and is commonly the figuring out issue when dealing with an investment buy of various units: go for the set that’s the furthest alongside in its production run and you’re normally secure. That’s until you’re the sufferer of LEGO deception school readiness.
LEGO deception is nothing greater than these units which have outlived their welcome for the informal investor but merely refuse to die a pure dying. That’s not to say that most people agrees with that sentiment; actually they clearly don’t or else these units wouldn’t nonetheless be hanging round years after their debuts. An ideal instance of EOL deception is the Medieval Market Village (10193). This set got here out in 2008 and continues to be out there in the present day. Presently LEGO Store at Home (S&H) lists this set as not being out there till August of this yr. Does this imply it’s lastly nearing EOL? The 2 yr EOL rule would dictate this outcome however this set appears to have some sturdy legs and stays extremely popular. It could nonetheless have some life left in it. The unique RRP of $99 continues to be an excellent deal. The present worth is listed at about $92 which is a 6% lower from RRP. Curiously the worth of this set has truly elevated 6% over the past month. It looks like traders would possibly begin to notice some modest beneficial properties within the subsequent 6 months if it does find yourself going EOL this summer time or fall. One other set that’s nonetheless out there long gone the 2 yr EOL rule is the Hearth Brigade (10197). This set was launched in September 2009 and was considered a possible candidate for EOL at Christmas 2011! As of in the present day it’s nonetheless going sturdy with no indicators of letting up, even after the discharge of the modular City Corridor in March. There was a lot hypothesis surrounding the modular theme and what number of completely different energetic units it could help at any given time. For a number of weeks this spring most main retailers didn’t have the Hearth Brigade in inventory, together with S@H and Amazon. This led to a small bubble in worth that has since popped and has now returned to close unique RRP. Lastly, one can’t ignore the most important and most excessive instance of LEGO EOL deception: The Loss of life Star (10188). For a lot of informal LEGO traders it was this set that introduced them out of their Darkish Ages. So it’s considerably ironic that this set continues to be out there 4 years later! The truth is it’s nonetheless a LEGO finest vendor on Amazon, even with a large RRP of $399. Sadly the present worth is “simply” $383 and positively doesn’t mirror the spectacular fireplace power of the real and absolutely operational Loss of life Star it so splendidly emulates.
Many components play a job in making use of the LEGO two yr EOL guideline. Actually reputation, revenue, theme and value all assist to dictate the lifespan of a selected set and every a kind of components may very well be analyzed in nice element. For many informal LEGO traders that’s simply not significantly sensible or productive. For now it’s best to maintain an eye fixed out for units which might be nearing the 2 yr mark and use your finest LEGO judgment. As with every investment there’s a massive ingredient of likelihood concerned. Soar too early and you could sit round with many massive boxes in each room of your home. Wait too lengthy and you’ll solely want you had many massive boxes in each room of your home.